# I have flipped and unbiased coin three times and got heads, it is more likely to get tails the next time I flip it.

I have flipped and unbiased coin three times and got heads, it is more likely to get tails the next time I flip it.

Details:

Use the document “Probability Project” to complete the assignment.

While APA format is not required for the body of this assignment, solid academic writing is expected, and documentation of sources should be presented using APA formatting guidelines, which can be found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center.

Topic 3 – Probability Project

Directions

Use the following information to complete the assignment. While APA format is not required for the body of this assignment, solid academic writing is expected, and documentation of sources should be presented using APA formatting guidelines, which can be found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center.

There are many misconceptions about probability which may include the following.

• All events are equally likely
• Later events may be affected by or compensate for earlier ones
• When determining probability from statistical data, sample size is irrelevant
• Results of games of skill are unaffected by the nature of the participants
• “LuckyUnlucky” numbers can influence random events
• In random event involving selection, results are dependent on number rather than rations
• If events are random then the results of a series of independent events are equally likely

The following statements are all incorrect. Explain the statements and the errors fully using the probability rules discussed in topic two.

1. I have flipped and unbiased coin three times and got heads, it is more likely to get tails the next time I flip it.

2. The Rovers play Mustangs. The Rovers can win, loose, or draw, so the probability that they win is 13.

3. I roll two dice and ad the results. The probability of getting a total of 6 is 112 because there are 12 different possibilities and 6 is one of them.

4. Mr. Purple has to have a major operation. 90% of the people who have this operation make a complete recovery. There is a 90% chance that Mr. Purple will make a complete recovery if he has this operation.

5. I flip two coins. The probability of getting heads and tails is 13 because I can get Heads and Heads, Heads and Tails, or Tails and Tails.

6. 13 is an unlucky number so you are less likely to win raffles with ticket number 13 than with a different dumber.

Discussion Questions (DQ)

Initial responses to the DQ should address all components of the questions asked, include a minimum of one scholarly source, and be at least 250 words.

Successful responses are substantive (i.e., add something new to the discussion, engage others in the discussion, well-developed idea) and include at least one scholarly source.

One or two sentence responses, simple statements of agreement or “good post,” and responses that are off-topic will not count as substantive. Substantive responses should be at least 150 words.

I encourage you to incorporate the readings from the week (as applicable) into your responses.

Weekly Participation

Your initial responses to the mandatory DQ do not count toward participation and are graded separately.

In addition to the DQ responses, you must post at least one reply to peers (or me) on three separate days, for a total of three replies.

Participation posts do not require a scholarly source/citation (unless you cite someone else’s work).

Part of your weekly participation includes viewing the weekly announcement and attesting to watching it in the comments. These announcements are made to ensure you understand everything that is due during the week.

APA Format and Writing Quality

Familiarize yourself with APA format and practice using it correctly. It is used for most writing assignments for your degree. Visit the Writing Center in the Student Success Center, under the Resources tab in LoudCloud for APA paper templates, citation examples, tips, etc. Points will be deducted for poor use of APA format or absence of APA format (if required).

Cite all sources of information! When in doubt, cite the source. Paraphrasing also requires a citation.

I highly recommend using the APA Publication Manual, 6th edition.

Use of Direct Quotes

I discourage overutilization of direct quotes in DQs and assignments at the Masters’ level and deduct points accordingly.

As Masters’ level students, it is important that you be able to critically analyze and interpret information from journal articles and other resources. Simply restating someone else’s words does not demonstrate an understanding of the content or critical analysis of the content.

It is best to paraphrase content and cite your source.

LopesWrite Policy

For assignments that need to be submitted to LopesWrite, please be sure you have received your report and Similarity Index (SI) percentage BEFORE you do a “final submit” to me.

Once you have received your report, please review it. This report will show you grammatical, punctuation, and spelling errors that can easily be fixed. Take the extra few minutes to review instead of getting counted off for these mistakes.

Review your similarities. Did you forget to cite something? Did you not paraphrase well enough? Is your paper made up of someone else’s thoughts more than your own?

Visit the Writing Center in the Student Success Center, under the Resources tab in LoudCloud for tips on improving your paper and SI score.

Late Policy

The university’s policy on late assignments is 10% penalty PER DAY LATE. This also applies to late DQ replies.

Please communicate with me if you anticipate having to submit an assignment late. I am happy to be flexible, with advance notice. We may be able to work out an extension based on extenuating circumstances.

If you do not communicate with me before submitting an assignment late, the GCU late policy will be in effect.

I do not accept assignments that are two or more weeks late unless we have worked out an extension.

As per policy, no assignments are accepted after the last day of class. Any assignment submitted after midnight on the last day of class will not be accepted for grading.

Communication is so very important. There are multiple ways to communicate with me:

Questions to Instructor Forum: This is a great place to ask course content or assignment questions. If you have a question, there is a good chance one of your peers does as well. This is a public forum for the class.

Individual Forum: This is a private forum to ask me questions or send me messages. This will be checked at least once every 24 hours.

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